AFC East Breakout Player: Sammy Morris

With the NFL season still dragging it’s feet (why won’t it just get here already?) prognosticators start showing up across the vast universe that is the internet with everything from Super Bowl picks to MVP selections to fantasy rankings. It wasn’t that long ago, that even I posted my Top 10 Patriots Fantasy Forecasts for 2009.

Today, ironically, ESPN’s bloggers posted their breakout player for each division and the AFC East breakout player was none other than… Dustin Keller? Hmm…

I understand that with Chris Baker out of the way, Keller will have more time on the playing field and more opportunities in the red zone. I can see that since they are more than likely going to be starting a rookie QB they want to make sure he has a good security blanket. But I just can’t see Keller as the pick for breakout player among all of the talent in the AFC East. This isn’t a slant against Keller, but he isn’t the pick. It’s Sammy Morris.

I have taken some heat over my lofty prediction for Morris (1,000 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns), but I’m sticking to it. What type of blogger would I be if I didn’t stick to my own convictions after a little bit of heat. So, let me dig a little deeper and show you my side a little bit more. Maybe you’ll want to improve off of the conservative opinions that most fantasy beatniks are handing out for the Pats’ running back.

The number one criticism of Morris is that he’s in a crowded backfield and he isn’t even likely to get the ball 20 times a game. With Laurence Maroney and Fred Taylor on the depth chart and possibly ahead of him he’s going to be the odd man out. There’s a funny little thing that I like to call math that says he doesn’t need anywhere near the carries that you think to get to 1,000/10. Look at Morris’ production over the past two seasons with New England:

Deep breath for a lot of numbers…

In 2007, Morris played in six games and carried the ball 85 times for 384 yards (4.5 YPC).

In 2008, Morris played in 13 games and carried the ball 156 times for 727 yards (4.7 YPC).

That means that for his Patriots career he has totalled 1,111 rushing yards over 241 carries for a YPC of 4.6. Even if you want to call it a small sample size, I would argue that he’s a 4.2 YPC running back over his career with his numbers jumping significantly with his arrival in New England. So, if he was able to perform at his 4.6 YPC average he would need 218 carries to rush for 1,000 yards this season. In the words of Vince, the Shamwow guy, “you still following me camera guy?”

Now, the jump in carries from 156 to 218 may seem substantial, but he only played in 13 games last season. That means that in those 13 games he averaged 12.0 carries per game. In order to reach 218 he would only need to average 13.6 carries per game. It basically comes down to Morris averaging 1.6 carries more per game in 2009. Being that the Patriots have averaged between 28-33 carries per game every year since 2003 we’re talking about Morris getting less than half of the carries while Taylor and Maroney could share the rest and Kevin Faulk getting a handful from time to time.

Just for fun, Taylor averaged 13.9 carries per game since Maurice Jones-Drew’s arrival in 2006. For those of you thinking that Taylor is going become a full-time back don’t hold your breath. The Jaguars figured out a way to keep Taylor healthy and extend his career. Odds are the Patriots are going to do the same thing.

That means Morris can get his 13.6, Taylor can get his 13.9, and there is still between 1-5 carries for a third running back. That’s right in the Patriots wheel house. Last year the Patriots only ran went to two running backs twice. Every other week they handed the ball to at least three backs. In those weeks, the Patriots rotated among six different running backs (counting FB Heath Evans), and averaged 21.7 carries between the two. The third running back only managed 3.4 carries and never topped eight in a game. Morris and Taylor can flip back and forth from week to week with one getting 16 carries while the other gets 10.

As for Maroney… he’ll do just fine with the left overs because he’s way too injury prone. I know we have heard his comments about how he’s preparing to come back this year better and stronger than ever, but until I see it I am not buying it. Sure, Morris and Taylor have each had their problems with injuries in the past as well, but if I am drafting a fantasy team today, Maroney is the third in line.

Let’s also debunk the myth that the Patriots are an all out aerial team. It’s tough to imagine when you have Tom Brady and Randy Moss each setting touchdown records at their own positions, but the Patriots have finished in the top 13 in average rushing yards per game throughout the NFL in four of the past five seasons with two finishes inside the top seven. They’ve also finished fourth, fourth, fifth, eighth, and 11th over that same span in team rushing touchdowns.

This helps lead me to the other half of my prediction: Morris’ 10 rushing touchdowns. Morris has averaged a a rushing touchdown once every 24.1 attempts. So, using 218 as his carries (which would push him to 1,000 rushing yards) he would score nine touchdowns. I have him down for 10 because I feel he’ll be utilized as the goal line back in an extra effort to maintain the health of Taylor. Even if he falls short on yardage (which he won’t), Morris will hit double digit touchdowns this year. Remember, Taylor only scored one touchdown last season surrendering most of the goal line duties over to Jones-Drew.

AFC East breakout player Dustin Keller… I think not.

Tags: Chris Baker, Dustin Keller, ESPN, Fred Taylor, Kevin Faulk, Laurence Maroney, Maurice Jones-Drew, New England Patriots, New York Jets, Randy Moss, Sammy Morris, Tom Brady, Top 10